What prediction markets tell you that price doesn’t

A stock price tells you what an asset is worth right now. A prediction market tells you the crowd's probability of a future event — a rate cut, an election outcome, a team lifting a trophy. For a trader, that is a different, forward-looking reading.

Why probabilities beat opinions

Pundits give you narratives; prediction markets give you a number with money behind it. When a market prices a September rate cut at 68%, that is the aggregate, capital-weighted view — and it moves as new information lands.

Reading the price

The contract price is the implied probability: a market trading at 0.68 implies a 68% chance. Two things to watch:

• The level — how likely the crowd thinks the event is.
• The trend — a probability climbing from 40% to 70% over a week is a story; the direction of the change often matters more than the snapshot.

Where it fits in a trading process

Prediction markets are a sentiment and catalyst tool. Use them to (1) gauge how much of an event is already priced in, (2) spot divergences between what markets-for-events expect and what asset prices imply, and (3) track the run-up into a known catalyst. They are not a crystal ball — thin markets can be noisy, and probability is not certainty.

Inside the terminal, the Free plan shows the six highest-volume Polymarket markets, each with its current probability and expiry, next to your charts and macro, so event risk sits in the same workspace as everything else you watch. Pro (early access; see plans and pricing) opens the full board of active markets.

Prediction-market data is shown for research and is not betting or investment advice.

Open the Meaterm terminal free → Charting, macro, COT, on-chain and prediction-market signals in one place, from €9.99/month.